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Louisville Market Trends

Louisville Real Estate Trends For 2017

By Jay Gulick, Managing Broker

  • As reported by my friend Tre Pryor in his always insightful writings for Insider Louisville and Louisville Homes Blog, there continues to be serious shortage of houses for sale in Louisville. A balanced housing market (e.g. one that is equally good for buyers and sellers) has six months of available inventory. As Tre points out, in January 2017, there was only 2.18 months of available inventory across the entire market. The corollary to such a low supply of homes is that prices have continued to rise. The average sale price of all homes sold in Louisville in January was $194,108. For January 2016 that number was $187,392 and going back to January 2015, the average sale price was $166,740. So, in just two years the average sale price in Louisville has jumped approximately 16.4%.
  • Interestingly, for homes priced at $500,000 and above there is close to 9 months worth of available single family inventory. So while the market as a whole is very much a seller's market, the high end of the market is currently more favorable to buyers.
  • Lack of inventory coupled with better than average buyer demand also translates into multiple offer situations. Anecdotally, an agent in our office just listed a nicely updated $560,000 house in St. Matthews. She had 19 showings the first day it was on the market and received 3 purchase offers. Most buyers and sellers are well served by having professional agent representation during multiple offer situations which are stressful and highly competitive in even the best of situations.
  • Inventory is tight everywhere, especially in lower price ranges, but if you’re a buyer in 2017 it may pay to broaden your neighborhood search. For example, while the 40217 zip code in Germantown had...

2016 Record Year For Louisville Real Estate?

From Insider Louisville: From January through November 2015, there had been 10,548 properties sold in Jefferson County. This year we’re up 5.58 percent with 11,137 units sold. All while Louisville homebuyers had far fewer choices! With only 304 homes needed to top our all-time record, it’s all but assured that 2016 is a record year for Louisville real estate. Read more.

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Sticker Shock for East End Homeowners in 2017?

From The Courier-Journal.com: More than 100,000 Jefferson County homeowners – mostly in St. Matthews and the East End – will face property reappraisals next year and probably suffer “sticker shock” too when future tax bills arrive, the top assessment official said.  "Home sales and values are skyrocketing, and sales drive the bus" in how property is evaluated for tax purposes, Jefferson Property Valuation Administrator Tony Lindauer said in late October. Read more

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Louisville Market Recap - First Half of 2016

While we do our best to assist buyers and sellers throughout the community, Kentucky Select agents excel in a few particular Louisville neighborhoods and market segments.

Based on recently released statistics from the MLS and BrokerMetrics® for the first half of 2016 (January through June), we’re excited to share that Kentucky Select had the leading market share by total sales volume - in all price ranges - in the following zip codes:

  • 40204 (Parts of Germantown, Cherokee Triangle and the Original Highlands)
  • 40205 (Upper Highlands, Cherokee Park and parts of Seneca Park)
  • 40206 (Clifton, Crescent Hill,, Avalon, Lexington Road and Cherokee Gardens)
  • 40207 (St. Matthews, Indian Hills, Rolling Fields) 
  • 40222 (Crossgate, Glenview Manor, Glenview Hills, Northfield and Graymoor/Devondale)
  • As well as the top total sales volume of properties that sold for $1 million or more for the entire Louisville market

Since our agents know and work these areas so effectively, we thought we’d share some insights into market dynamics in these 5 zip codes as well as the Louisville luxury market. As a reminder, a market's absorption rate measures the rate at which available homes are sold during a given time period. Generally, an absorption rate of 6.0 months inventory indicates a balanced market of supply and demand. As you can see from the tables below much of Louisville is experiencing a severe shortage of inventory (absorption rates of around 2 to 2.5). Because of the lack of inventory much of Louisville is in the midst of a very heated seller's market.

40204

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January – June 2016

May Breaks Louisville Real Estate Records

From Insider Louisville and Tre Pryor: Ok, pop quiz! (applause) First question: In what month were Louisville homes selling the fastest? You guessed it, May! Second: What month had the lowest absorption rate in Louisville real estate history? Yes, again it’s May! Read more.

Baxter Ave Condo

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Louisville Home Sales Up, Days On Market Down

From Courier-Journal.com: The sale of single-family homes and condominiums in Jefferson, Bullitt and Oldham counties rose 12 percent in 2015, the Greater Louisville Association of Realtors reported Monday. Last year, 16,279 homes and condos were sold in Louisville-area counties compared to 14,540 in 2014. Sales in the three counties were also up 12.5 percent in December 2015 versus December 2014. The median price for single-family homes and condos in all areas in 2015 increased 5.8 percent compared to 2014. The average price for a single-family home or condo also increased 6.2%. Read more.

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What To Expect From The Louisville Housing Market in 2016

Economist John Kenneth Galbraith once quipped, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” Keeping this in mind, it is with a sufficient dose of humility that we offer a few thoughts on factors that may impact the Louisville residential housing market next year.

  • Because of an ongoing lack of inventory it will likely continue to be a seller’s market in 2016. Absorption rate measures the rate at which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period (calculated by dividing the total # of homes by the number of sales per month). A balanced market – one that favors neither buyers nor sellers – has an absorption rate of 6 months. According to a December 22 post from Louisville Homes Blog, November Louisville’s absorption rate was an eye-opening 3.68 months. Additionally, there has been nearly a 20% decline in the number of active listings since November 2014.

 "There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know." - John Kenneth Galbraith

  • Basic economics tells us that with lower supply one can expect higher prices. But even with a lack of inventory there may be a ceiling on home appreciation for the next few years. The S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Index estimates that nationally home prices will rise 3% in 2016 and 2017. This contrasts with an annualized growth rate of 9.5% since the end of 2011, when the Index declared the housing market had hit bottom after the recession.
  • The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate likely signals the beginning of the end for historically rock bottom mortgage rates. This is not to say...

3 Louisville Neighborhoods With The Fastest Rising Values

By Satinder Haer

Buying a home is one of the biggest decisions people make in their lifetimes. It’s often a stressful purchase because home values rise and fall outside of the homeowner’s control. However, purchasing in an area with rising home values can give you a degree of confidence about your investment.

If you’re looking for homes in Louisville, consider one of these three neighborhoods that experienced the most appreciation in the past year and are forecasted to have the sharpest increase in home values during the next year.

Bashford Manor

The tiny neighborhood of Bashford Manor has had an unprecedented amount of growth in the last two years. The median home value in Bashford Manor is currently $105,900, up nearly $12,000 from May 2014. The growth is not slowing down either, making the investment stronger. On top of the 13.4 percent increase in home values last year, another 6.9 percent increase is predicted throughout the next year. Bashford Manor is a great choice for families who want to live in a residential area with amenities just a short car ride away. The Louisville Zoo and Beargrass Creek State Nature Preserve are less than a 10-minute drive northwest of Bashford Manor, while Target, Walmart and other departments stores are just south of the area.

1366 S. Third Street

Old Louisville

Located in the heart of central Louisville, Old Louisville is the hub of all the action. This neighborhood is home to the University of Louisville, hosts the annual St. James Court Art Show and features stunning Victorian-era homes. Currently...

Do Homes Inside or Outside The Watterson Sell For More?

Our fascination with numbers can lead to some very interesting conversations about the state of Louisville’s real estate market.  For instance, this past month, someone in the office asked which area we thought sold better, urban homes inside the Watterson, or the more suburban areas outside of our expressway system.

Convinced this was a no-brainer, we piped up with an opinion, but before we had actually dug through the numbers to prove our case.  Before you read any further, ask yourself, if we were to look at four “urban” zip codes, and compared them to another set of four that were further east, let’s say “suburban”, which set of sold homes would you expect to get closer to their asking price? As any seasoned Louisville Realtor® will attest, there are two distinct groups of buyers in town – those who will happily live outside the Watterson and those who break into a light sweat when they venture outside the borderlands of I-264.

Sales Price to List Price by Zip Code

Back to the “urban” vs. “suburban” zip codes. That scenario is exactly what we graphed above.  Using 40204, 40205, 40206 and 40207 as the urban set, we compared the ratio of sold prices to listing prices (SP/LP%) of these homes along with a suburban set comprised of zip codes 40222, 40223, 40245 and 40059.

We fully expected this to be a pretty graph and plot out very quickly with one group clearly outperforming another.  And yet…

Unless you predicted that there would be no pattern at all, we think it would be fair to say that there doesn’t appear to be a relationship at all between where a home is located...

Sellers Market in Louisville Heating Up

The average price of homes sold in Jefferson County in the first four months of 2015 was $181,197, nearly a $20,000 increase over the same 2014 period, the Greater Louisville Association of Realtors has reported.Home sales were up sharply across the association's three-county metro area, which includes Jefferson, Bullitt and Oldham counties. Read more.

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Louisville Residential Real Estate Market Update

Like most people, when the new year rolls around, I like to take a little time out and reflect on the year that was, and the year that is ahead of us.  With real estate, I’m a little hesitant trying to predict what will happen in our local market over the next 12 months.  But I can certainly take a look at what has happened, not only last year, but maybe even stretching a little further back than 2014.

For the entire Louisville MLS, which includes several neighboring counties adjoining Jefferson, such as Shelby and Oldham counties, 2014 was the third year in a row that saw a rise in the number of units sold when compared to the preceding 12 months.

From a recent low of 11,720 units sold in 2011, each of the next three years saw a few more sales to reach this past year’s total of 16,082 sold properties.

MLS Units 2014

I have seen different numbers being reported, with some outlets even saying that the MLS saw a decline in the number of homes sold between 2014 and 2013.  So to clear up any confusion and to be fully transparent, all of the numbers that I used for these graphs were pulled directly from the MLS, and included all single family homes along with multi-family properties, rentals and vacant land or lots.

I chose to use all the categories of residential sales, and not focus on single family homes only because I wanted this short article to be general in nature, and to be all inclusive since I don’t know which types of properties each reader might find most interesting.  When I turned the tables and focused on how well Kentucky Select Properties has fared as a Brokerage over the past few years, I used the exact same criteria.

As Kentucky Select Properties celebrated its 10th Anniversary (thank you!) this year, the numbers appear...

Will 2015 See The Return Of First Time Home Buyers?

When it comes to the housing market, 2015 may be the year first-time home buyers make a comeback.

With rents rising faster than incomes, many Millennials are expected to start looking to buy homes of their own. What they will find are much more favorable conditions than they have seen in years, including lower down payment mortgages, looser lending standards and a bigger selection of homes to choose from.Here are four housing market trends economists and other industry experts expect to see in the year ahead. Read more.

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10 Things You Should Know About Buying or Selling A House

Some solid fundamentals on buying or selling real estate from the folks at Realtor.com:

When it comes to buying a home there are many different steps to consider. It can be a very confusing time for the first time home buyer. Putting your home up for sale can be equally demanding. Realtor® Billy Malone of San Marino, California recently compiled his list of ten things that those shopping for a home or putting one on the market need to keep in mind:

Buying and selling a home can be the most stressful process you may ever experience. Even if the process is not overly stressful, it can often be a personal and emotional transaction and will be one of the most significant. Owning a home is the American dream, it is where we build our lives and families, and it should not evolve into the American nightmare. So how do you make sure that you get to live the dream and live it well? One method is to refer to one of those Real Estate checklists you come across online. Read more.

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Are Millennials Hurting The Housing Recovery?

First-time home buyers haven’t been much help in the housing recovery, but it isn’t because young adults stopped aspiring to become homeowners. “Though they see a tough road to affording Homeownership, younger renters [those between the ages of 18 and 39] still are very likely to say that it’s in their future plans,” wrote Sarah Shahdad, strategic planning analyst with Fannie Mae, commenting recently on Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey. “The vast majority still plan to own someday; about half plan to buy a home the next time they move.” Read more.

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Kentucky Select Marks Record Fourth $3 Million-Plus Sale In 2013

(Reprinted from InsiderLouisville.com) Signs that the real estate apocalypse has finally passed. Kentucky Select Properties just reported the sale of a $3.05 million house on tony Avish Lane, the ritzy Harrods Creek enclave off River Road. How important is this sale to all of Louisville (even to those of us not buying, or selling, seven-figure houses at the moment)? Read more.

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Record Louisville Home Sales in July

July was a record month for home sales in Louisville as 1,102 properties were sold. This is a 13-percent gain over last month and a whopping 29.5-percent increase over July, 2012.

The total number of homes sold is also the highest since June, 2007. Wow.

Heading into the new year, I think most experts thought 2013 was going to see improvement in the Louisville real estate market. I’m not sure many predicted this kind of success.

What we saw during June was very encouraging, especially the rise in home values. That kind of spike was very dramatic and also quite rare. Read more.

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Louisville Homes Sales Up 19% In January

Members of the Greater Louisville Association of Realtors sold 880 houses and condos in January, a 19 percent increase from a year earlier. The median sale in January — the point at which half of homes sold for more and half for less — was $133,000, a 6 percent increase from a year earlier, the association said. “Our members are looking forward to a strong spring selling season, building on relatively good winter months,” Louisville Realtors President Paul Ogden said in the group’s monthly news release. Read more.

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Home Prices Grow At Fastest Pace in 7 Years

Home prices in the fourth quarter of 2012 showed a rate of annual appreciation greater than in any quarter since the end of 2005 the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said today.  There were 133 metropolitan areas in which median prices rose during the quarter out of the 152 tracked by NAR.  Prices increase in 120 areas in the third quarter and only 29 one year earlier.  Twenty-nine areas posted price declines in the recent period. Read more.

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Louisville Home Values On The Upswing

Today, we report another month of positive real estate news as Louisville home sales were up 18 percent over last year! Eight hundred, fifty-two homes were sold in July 2012, compared to just 720 in July 2011. While this was just shy of May and June’s identical 859 homes sold, activity was likely affected by the record heat wave blasting the area, and might have been higher. For some historical perspective, 678 Louisville homes were sold in July 2010, 926 in July 2009, and 696 in July 2008. Louisville home values are also improving. The median home sale price for the month dipped from $147,000 in June to $144,590 in July but with the trend still moving upward, there may be some optimism for those holding to the view of a recovering real estate market. Read more.

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